For years, I ran sweepstakes for companies like the NFL, NASCAR, Publix, Pepsi, and Frito-Lay. In doing so, I became deeply familiar with the legal boundaries around sweepstakes, which are regulated on both state and federal levels. These regulations are designed to protect consumers from scams and ensure that everything is above board.
Screencap 10/20/2024 3:45pm
Sweepstakes, in their most basic form, must adhere to the principle of “no purchase necessary.” It’s a consumer protection issue, but there’s also a historical context that ties into racketeering laws. Before states took over lotteries, they were often run by organized crime syndicates, manipulating outcomes and controlling how money flowed. This is why lotteries, sweepstakes, and similar types of promotions are so tightly regulated today.
So, when I see Elon Musk offering a financial reward for signing a petition, alarms go off. Even if the petition isn’t directly tied to voting or registration—which would constitute a federal crime—any judge or jury is likely to see this as an attempt to sidestep voter and consumer protection laws. Financial incentives tied to civic engagement blur ethical and legal boundaries, and in this case, it’s not a sweepstakes because it requires signing a petition.
If it’s not a payment for votes and doesn’t qualify as a sweepstakes, then it’s edging into the realm of a lottery. And lotteries, of course, are heavily regulated. It’s an area where a small misstep can result in significant legal consequences, precisely because of their historical ties to organized crime. The laws are structured to prevent manipulation and to keep betting controlled by trusted entities—usually the state. When someone offers financial incentives for actions like signing a petition, it’s not hard to see why regulators would take notice.
There are legal principles at play here that Musk may be trying to skirt, but as someone who spent years navigating the complexities of sweepstakes law, I can tell you that when you add financial rewards to actions like signing a petition, you’re playing with fire. Courts tend to see through veils like this, especially when it comes to something as sensitive as influencing political participation.
The bottom line: offering monetary incentives tied to a petition may be viewed as a lottery under the law, and that’s a whole other can of worms. Lotteries, unlike sweepstakes, are tightly controlled because they can be easily manipulated when not under the oversight of a reputable organization (or the state). Whether Musk’s petition falls into this category or not will depend on how it’s perceived, but the risks are high, and the potential legal ramifications are significant.
We already know how this plays out…we watched his playbook in 2020. We should be fully prepared for some permutation of this scenario. To assume he will lose gracefully this time is laughable.
Premature Declaration of Victory
On election night, before all the votes are counted, Trump declares victory in key battleground states. He leverages early leads and exit poll data to assert that any subsequent changes in vote counts are due to fraud. This announcement is broadcasted across major news networks and amplified through social media channels.
Mobilizing Legal Challenges
Immediately following his declaration, Trump’s legal team files lawsuits in multiple states, contesting the validity of mail-in ballots and other late-counted votes. They seek injunctions to halt the counting process, arguing that irregularities must be investigated before results can be certified.
Leveraging Media and Social Media
Trump’s allies, including influential media personalities and social media influencers, flood the airwaves and internet with claims of widespread voter fraud. They promote conspiracy theories, such as “illegal immigrants being flown in to vote” and other baseless accusations, to sow doubt among the electorate.
Rallying Political Allies
Trump’s supporters in Congress, many of whom owe their political careers to his influence, publicly support his claims. They call for investigations and special sessions to address the alleged irregularities, further legitimizing the narrative of a stolen election.
Engaging Influential Backers
Wealthy backers and powerful figures, including owners of major social media platforms (ahem, Elon), use their resources to support Trump’s claims. They fund ad campaigns, mobilize grassroots supporters, and use their platforms to promote the idea that the election was compromised.
Coordinating with State Legislatures
In states where Republicans control the legislature, Trump’s team pressures lawmakers to reject the certified results and appoint electors who will vote for him regardless of the popular vote outcome. This echoes the tactics explored in the 2020 election but with greater coordination and support.
Contesting Certification
As the December deadline for certifying the electoral college vote approaches, Trump’s legal challenges delay the process in key states. His team argues that the election results cannot be certified until all allegations of fraud are thoroughly investigated.
Supreme Court Intervention
With several cases making their way through the courts, Trump’s legal team aims to reach the Supreme Court, where they believe they have favorable judges. They argue that the irregularities and unresolved lawsuits necessitate a judicial review of the election results.
Creating Public Unrest
Simultaneously, Trump’s supporters organize protests and rallies across the country, demanding that the election results be overturned. This public pressure aims to sway public opinion and intimidate officials into compliance.
Final Push for Congressional Intervention
On January 6th, during the formal certification of the electoral votes, Trump’s allies in Congress contest the results from multiple states, forcing a debate and a vote. This final attempt aims to delay or overturn the certification process, throwing the decision to the House of Representatives, where Trump hopes to secure a favorable outcome through the state delegation process.
He will do some or all of these things. Mark my words.
In the quiet hours of Sunday evening, I stumbled upon Ray Dalio’s latest LinkedIn post. Dalio, the hedge fund titan worth billions, has apparently decided to turn his analytical eye on his own generation – and the view isn’t pretty.
Dalio, born in the auspicious year of 1949, paints a picture of America that’s more dystopian novel than American Dream. According to this boomer billionaire, his generation has:
Slowly strangled the American Dream
Treated the national debt like a bottomless piggy bank
Watched the country’s infrastructure crumble with apathetic disinterest
Engineered a wealth gap that would make Gilded Age robber barons blush
Fumbled America’s global leadership with stunning ineptitude
But Dalio isn’t content with just pointing out past failures. No, he’s gazing into the future, and what he sees there is enough to make anyone reach for the panic button. Civil unrest, breakdown of law and order – it’s all there in his post, sandwiched between economic jargon and self-reflection.
And who does Dalio cast as the protagonists of this boomer-led decline? None other than Trump and Biden, our septuagenarian candidates vying for the privilege of steering this listing ship of state. It’s a choice that seems to fill Dalio with a palpable sense of dread.
There’s an undeniable irony here – Dalio, a card-carrying member of the boomer elite, standing atop his mountain of wealth and declaring, “We’ve made a terrible mistake.” It’s part confessional, part warning, all wrapped up in the measured tones of a man who’s spent a lifetime analyzing systems and cycles.
As I sit here, processing Dalio’s words, I can’t help but wonder: Is this the wake-up call we needed, or just another verse in the song of generational discord? Either way, it’s a fascinating glimpse into the mind of a boomer billionaire who’s just realized the party’s over, and the cleanup is going to be hell.
So, take a journey through Dalio’s critique. Whether you’re a millennial drowning in student debt, a Gen Zer wondering if you’ll ever own a home, or a Gen Xer wondering if maybe you’ve been too way too patient with all you muthaflippers, there’s something here for everyone.
Buckle up, Buttercup. It’s going to be one hellova ride.
Back in the summer of 2011 I was head of marketing for a start-up called Tropo. Our team was geographically spread around the globe, but I mostly worked out of a small office on 3rd floor of a building right on the corner of Market and 2nd Street in downtown San Francisco. We had a lovely view of Market Street and I would often find myself gazing at the crowds passing by below while working on a press release, company blog entry or planning our next tech event.
One afternoon I noticed what, at first I thought was a parade heading north up Market Street towards the Embarcadero and the Ferry Building. Drums were pounding, people were chanting…I looked a little closer and noticed some were carrying signs but I could’t make out what the signs said. It certainly wasn’t a parade…and I quickly realized it was some sort of protest. Ah! but protesting what?
Since I had moved to San Francisco a year earlier I noticed three things that San Franciscans love: Getting dressed in costumes, Parades, and Protests. Sometimes all three at the same time. This particular group kinda had costumes…some of them were wearing Guy Fawkes masks, some had a cyber-punk/steampunk look…but it it was less of a parade and more of a moving crowd. The crowd stopped right across the street and circled around a Chase Bank retail location on the ground floor. I grabbed my camera and went out to investigate.
As I approached I could see some of the signs, “We are the 99%”. “Tax the Rich”, and others. Some of the protestors had entered the bank and I could see them through the window with signs, holding hands and sitting cross-legged on the floor. The crowd outside of the bank was peaceful, but clearly they were protesting something…but what?
That was my very first introduction to the Occupy Wall Street movement. The police arrived, the protestors started walking further down the street to the Federal Reserve Bank building. I was taking pictures and video, mesmerized by this protest that had seemingly popped up from nowhere. The protest turned into a sit-in. Tents were erected. A small community of protestors took up residence outside of of the Federal building, and later around the Embarcadero. Police would periodically come in and clean all the “occupiers” out by destroying their tents, pepper spray, and mass arrests. I attended protests in San Francisco and Oakland, and because my job required a lot of travel that summer, I attended Occupy Protests in NYC, Seattle, Austin, Orlando, Miami, London, Berlin and Paris. It was a global protest of the have-nots vs. the haves and stretched on for months.
Now we’re seeing a different kind of protest movement. 2020 has proven to be a difficult year. Personally, I was battling liver disease and desperately needed a transplant to live (something that thankfully happened on May 13th!). But while I was busy with my own health issues and generally thinking “things couldn’t get worse”, the Covid-19 pandemic hit the world. Quarantines, stay-at-home-orders, curfews, and conflicting information from scientists, doctors and politicians cause a general sense of chaos and frustration.
DENVER, CO – MAY 30: Protestors line up against police during a protest after the killing of George Floyd Ð the Minneapolis man, who was killed by an officer, while being detained Ð in downtown Denver on Saturday, May 30, 2020. Thousands gathered to protest as police enforced an 8 p.m. citywide curfew. As officers advanced, protestors began throwing objects as officers returned non-lethal fire into the crowd. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
And just as it seemed we were emerging from the worst of the pandemic, as armed Trump supporters took to the streets to protest state lockdown orders and demand access to salons and golf courses, a few racially-charged incidents happened.
Within days, what started as peaceful protests in Minneapolis broke out into violence. Protests spread to other cities…within a week there were peaceful and violent protests in almost every major city in the United States and some international cities as well. Donald Trump flamed the fans of the fire with his (now anticipated) divisive rhetoric, causing more civil unrest. We are still in the midst of seeing this whole thing grow with no peace in sight, and no strong leadership to quell the anger and frustration.
What will happen next? Trump made an announcement today to tell local mayors and governors to stop the violence or he will use the military to do it for them. In the meantime, protests continue across the country with many cities enforcing overnight curfews.
Civil Disobedience is as American as, well, America. Perhaps Trevor Noah says it best.
