We already know how this plays out…we watched his playbook in 2020. We should be fully prepared for some permutation of this scenario. To assume he will lose gracefully this time is laughable.
- Premature Declaration of Victory
On election night, before all the votes are counted, Trump declares victory in key battleground states. He leverages early leads and exit poll data to assert that any subsequent changes in vote counts are due to fraud. This announcement is broadcasted across major news networks and amplified through social media channels.
- Mobilizing Legal Challenges
Immediately following his declaration, Trump’s legal team files lawsuits in multiple states, contesting the validity of mail-in ballots and other late-counted votes. They seek injunctions to halt the counting process, arguing that irregularities must be investigated before results can be certified.
- Leveraging Media and Social Media
Trump’s allies, including influential media personalities and social media influencers, flood the airwaves and internet with claims of widespread voter fraud. They promote conspiracy theories, such as “illegal immigrants being flown in to vote” and other baseless accusations, to sow doubt among the electorate.
- Rallying Political Allies
Trump’s supporters in Congress, many of whom owe their political careers to his influence, publicly support his claims. They call for investigations and special sessions to address the alleged irregularities, further legitimizing the narrative of a stolen election.
- Engaging Influential Backers
Wealthy backers and powerful figures, including owners of major social media platforms (ahem, Elon), use their resources to support Trump’s claims. They fund ad campaigns, mobilize grassroots supporters, and use their platforms to promote the idea that the election was compromised.
- Coordinating with State Legislatures
In states where Republicans control the legislature, Trump’s team pressures lawmakers to reject the certified results and appoint electors who will vote for him regardless of the popular vote outcome. This echoes the tactics explored in the 2020 election but with greater coordination and support.
- Contesting Certification
As the December deadline for certifying the electoral college vote approaches, Trump’s legal challenges delay the process in key states. His team argues that the election results cannot be certified until all allegations of fraud are thoroughly investigated.
- Supreme Court Intervention
With several cases making their way through the courts, Trump’s legal team aims to reach the Supreme Court, where they believe they have favorable judges. They argue that the irregularities and unresolved lawsuits necessitate a judicial review of the election results.
- Creating Public Unrest
Simultaneously, Trump’s supporters organize protests and rallies across the country, demanding that the election results be overturned. This public pressure aims to sway public opinion and intimidate officials into compliance.
- Final Push for Congressional Intervention
On January 6th, during the formal certification of the electoral votes, Trump’s allies in Congress contest the results from multiple states, forcing a debate and a vote. This final attempt aims to delay or overturn the certification process, throwing the decision to the House of Representatives, where Trump hopes to secure a favorable outcome through the state delegation process.
He will do some or all of these things. Mark my words.
